LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 revenue of $10.8M and net loss of $(22.8)M; consolidated operating loss improved year over year as OpEx fell; electric motorcycle units rose to 236, up 138% sequentially, while consolidated revenue declined 29% YoY on lower motorcycle mix .
• 2025 outlook targets 1,000–1,500 electric motorcycle unit sales and LiveWire operating loss of $70–$80M; management expects total 2025 cash used in operating and investing activities to be ≤$60M (~40% reduction vs 2024) .
• Strategic initiatives: Europe go-to-market shift to wholesale and entry into Spain and Italy; collaboration with KYMCO on an electric maxi-scooter (planned H1’26, Europe-focused); two new S2-based models (Mulholland and Alpinista) broaden lineup .
• Management reiterated U.S. leadership in 50+ hp on-road EV segment (65% share) and is targeting contribution margin positive by year-end as cost actions take hold, a potential narrative catalyst into 2025 execution .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well
  • Sequential unit acceleration: Q4 electric motorcycle units 236, up 138% vs Q3; OpEx reductions drove YoY improvement in consolidated operating loss .
  • Market leadership sustained: LiveWire maintained 65% share of the U.S. 50+ hp on-road EV segment in 2024; STACYC U.S. dealer sales +21% and U.S. online +20% YoY .
  • Structural repositioning: Headcount streamlined and operations consolidated in Milwaukee; Europe moved to wholesale, and expansion into Spain/Italy commenced .
• What Went Wrong
  • Revenue pressure: Q4 consolidated revenue down 29% YoY (to $10.8M) with Electric Motorcycles revenue down 56% YoY to $3.5M on lower units and mix .
  • STACYC profitability: Q4 STACYC posted $(0.6)M operating loss (vs +$0.4M prior year) amid increased product development and marketing costs .
  • Full-year scale still limited: FY24 motorcycle units were 612 (down 7% YoY) and consolidated revenue fell 30% YoY to $26.6M, underscoring adoption and mix challenges despite cost cuts .

Financial Results

Overall Results – Recent Quarters (oldest → newest)

Q4 2024 Segment and YoY Comparisons

Select KPIs – Units Trend (oldest → newest)

Qualitative drivers: Q4 Electric Motorcycles revenue fell YoY on lower units and product mix; Electric Motorcycles operating loss improved by $9.5M YoY primarily from a $9.2M reduction in selling, administrative and engineering expense; STACYC revenue modestly increased YoY on dealer/online sales but swung to an operating loss on product development and marketing spend .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We now expect to reduce our cash burn by 40% or more in 2025 compared to 2024.” — Karim Donnez, CEO .
• “LiveWire… maintained its leadership position with a 65% market share in the U.S. 50-plus horsepower on road EV segment.” — Karim Donnez .
• “LiveWire is forecasting unit sales of between 1,000 to 1,500 units and an operating loss in the range of $70 million to $80 million [in 2025]… total cash used… a reduction of approximately 40%… $60 million or less.” — Jonathan Root, CFO (Harley-Davidson) .
• “In the fourth quarter… unit sales of 236, a 138% increase over third quarter 2024.” — Press release .
• “We… plan for an electric maxi-scooter in the first half of ’26 with a primary focus on the European market.” — Karim Donnez .

Q&A Highlights

• Profitability path and commitment: Management is targeting contribution margin positive by year-end as BOM and conversion costs are reduced; Harley reiterated LiveWire must improve performance and optionality is under evaluation if adoption lags .
• 2025 outlook specifics: Guidance for 1,000–1,500 units and $(70)–$(80)M operating loss; cash burn ≤$60M driven by 2024 actions (headcount, relocation, platform leverage) .
• Maxi-scooter rationale: Leverages S2 platform and KYMCO know-how; targets growing European EV maxi-scooter segment; market entry planned H1’26 .
• Segment dynamics and STACYC: U.S. STACYC demand was strong online and in-dealer, but product development and marketing spend impacted profitability in Q4 .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of query due to data access limits; as a result, we cannot provide a beat/miss assessment versus consensus at this time. If you want, we can re-run once access is restored to incorporate consensus comparisons from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Execution setup: 2025 guide embeds a tangible step-down in losses (Op loss $(70)–$(80)M) and targeted cash burn ≤$60M (~40% reduction), with management focused on BOM, conversion costs, and OpEx productivity .
• Volume trajectory: After Q3 trough (99 units), Q4 units rebounded to 236; 2025 unit guide (1,000–1,500) implies continued ramp if demand materializes, especially with broader S2 portfolio .
• Product/economic levers: Two S2 derivatives launched and a 2026 maxi-scooter with KYMCO extend reach—particularly in Europe—potentially easing reliance on premium niches in the U.S. .
• Market positioning: Despite a tough EV motorcycle backdrop, LiveWire sustained U.S. leadership in its segment (65% share), a defensible base to grow from as cost position improves .
• European strategy shift: Moving to a wholesale model and entering Spain/Italy should sharpen channel execution in a core target region ahead of the maxi-scooter push .
• Near-term narrative catalyst: Achieving contribution margin positive by year-end, if realized, would validate cost actions and could reset investor confidence heading into 2026 product milestones .
• Watch items: STACYC profitability (amid PD/marketing), unit conversion of the expanded lineup, and cadence toward 2025 cash targets; any update on estimate coverage will refine beat/miss framing once available .

Citations: All figures and statements are sourced from LiveWire’s Q4 2024 8-K press release and financial statements , Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Harley-Davidson call including LiveWire segment) , and prior-quarter filings/transcripts for trend context .